Which of the following Mideast-related events can be expected this coming year? Take this quiz and calculate the future you need to be prepared for. (My answers are at the bottom of the article.)

1. Which of the following diplomatic-political events can be expected this year?

b. A US-Saudi-Israeli diplomatic deal, bringing an end to 100 years of Arab-Israeli conflict.

c. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will triumphantly bow out of Israeli politics after crushing Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran and feeling vindicated by a feeble end to his criminal trials.

d. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will run and win re-election after crushing Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran and feeling vindicated by a feeble end to his criminal trials.

e. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be run out of office by an Israeli public that holds him responsible for the collapse of October 7, 2023, and the escalating regional conflicts that have ensued with no end in sight.

f. Answers a, b, and c. And the messiah will come, too.

2. Which of the following security developments can be expected?

a. Mahmoud Abbas will be overthrown by one or more of the following Fatah leaders: Hussein al-Sheikh, Jibril Rajoub, Mahmoud al-Aloul, Majid Faraj, Marwan Barghouti, Mohammed Dahlan, or a Hamas leader that replaces Yahyah Sinwar.

b. The Palestinian Authority will sign a “treaty of protection” with Turkey and Iran.

c. The IDF will have to retake Judea and Samaria to stem terrorism and prevent a complete Hamas takeover of the Palestinian Authority.

d. The Israel Police and General Security Service will mount a massive campaign to confiscate the tens of thousands of unlicensed weapons in Israeli Arab communities and to shut down Bedouin protection rackets in the Negev.

e. The Israeli government will raise the defense budget from NIS 60 to 90 billion (from $17 to $24 billion), amounting to 7.5% of GDP, forcing massive cuts in social services, civilian infrastructure projects, and all pet political projects.

3. If Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid, and/or Avigdor Lieberman were to form the next Israeli government, they would manage diplomacy and security much better than Binyamin Netanyahu has by doing which of the following?

a. Cutting a swift hostage release deal with Hamas, then convincing Egypt to take control of Gaza.

b. Unilaterally withdrawing Israeli troops and settlers from significant sections of Judea and Samaria.

c. Quickly reach a peace accord with Mahmoud Abbas, who will assume responsibility for Gaza and bring stability, good governance, and goodwill to the entire area.

d. All the above answers are ridiculous. None of this is wise or feasible, and neither Gantz, Lapid, nor Lieberman would go there, despite the fantasies of many global observers.

4. Which of the following wins the top prize for the false promise of the past year/s?

a. Hamas is deterred.

b. Israeli military and intelligence “will know how to handle all challenges.”

c. Palestinian statehood will bring peace and stability to the region.

d. Western allies always will back Israel’s right to defend itself.

e. Haredi enlistment in the IDF is inevitable, especially if Israel is patient and invests wisely in higher education and employment programs for the Ultra-Orthodox.

f. All the above, especially d.

5. When will the next Israeli election be held?

a. April 2025.

b. November 2025.

c. In 2025, then again in 2026, again in 2027, and again in 2028.

d. In 2026 or 2028, a fresh crop of brave, battle-tested, and ideologically motivated leaders will enter Israeli public life, breathing hope and inspiration into Israeli politics. These will be the heroic lieutenant colonels (battalion and brigade commanders) of the current war and the equally heroic civil society leaders of the day.

6. Who will win next month’s US presidential election?

a. Kamala Harris, conclusively so, but Trump will refuse to recognize the result, leading to convulsions and violence across the US.

b. Donald Trump, authoritatively so, but Democrats will seek every way to undermine the legitimacy of his second presidency and cripple his administration.

c. The result will be so close and unclear that the determination of the matter will be dragged out for months and dragged all the way up to the US Supreme Court.

d. Once decisively determined, Americans will rally behind their next president and begin to repair their politics and society.

7. Between the November US elections and the inauguration of the next president in January, which of the following can be expected?

a. The P5+1 led by President Joe Biden will sign a soft, capitulatory new/old nuclear agreement with Iran that redefines the “nuclear threshold” in a way that allows Iran to blissfully and not-so-secretly advance toward a nuclear weapon.

b. Iran will test-detonate its first nuclear weapon, and in response, President Joe Biden will bomb the hell out of Iran, decapitating the Islamic Republic’s leadership ranks and all known military and nuclear sites and re-asserting US strategic dominance on the world stage.

c. To rein in and punish Netanyahu, the Biden-Harris administration will hit Israel with an arms embargo, more sanctions against a broad range of settler and right-wing civil society organizations, a vote at the UN Security Council recognizing Palestinian statehood, a nod to the ICC and ICJ to hit Israeli leaders with war criminal arrest warrants, and worse. All this, especially if Trump wins the election.

8. If elected as US president for a second term, Donald Trump will do which of the following?

a. Defund the United Nations.

b. Hit Iran with crushing sanctions and assassinate some IRGC leaders, as he did in his first term – to show who is the boss. But then he too will seek a conciliatory peace deal with Iran, no less than Obama and Biden did.

c. Pursue a grand Israeli-Palestinian peace accord based on misplaced respect for Mahmoud Abbas, misdirected disdain for Binyamin Netanyahu, and ridiculous belief in his own masterful deal-making powers.

d. Green-light unilateral extension of Israeli sovereignty to the broad Jerusalem envelope, Jordan Valley, and settlement blocks.

9. How many rockets and missiles have been fired into Israel from Gaza since Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s vaunted “disengagement” (unilateral withdrawal) from Gaza and the expulsion of Israeli residents from Gush Katif and other Israeli towns in Gaza?

a. 10,000.

b. More than 13,000 this past year alone!

c. 55,000, and at least 10,000 acres of Israeli agricultural fields in the Gaza envelope have been burned too.

d. 55,000, plus 13,000 rockets and missiles launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon into Israel in recent months.

10. If on one day, 200 rockets were to be fired into populated areas of Paris, Bonn and London (never mind if this were to continue for months), what would be the “proportionate response” of Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, and Keir Starmer?

a. They would seek to invest billions in the attacker’s economy to improve quality of life and squelch the urge to attack France, Germany, and Britain.

b. They would vote for a UN Security Council resolution calling on all sides to show restraint.

c. They would erase the leadership of the attacking party from the face of the earth. And then carpet-bomb the attacking zone to kingdom come, as the allies did in WWII.

11. World leaders will respond to future rounds of Israeli conflict with Iran and its proxy armies by doing what?

a. Calling on “all sides” to de-escalate and end the violence, while condemning Israel for “disproportionate” use of force and demanding that Israel provide humanitarian supplies to the enemy at wartime.

b. Profess robust support for Israel’s “right” to defend itself but deny Israel the arms and other material necessary for Israel to do so in real war.

c. Cheerfully and generously dump more cash into the sinkhole of reconstruction and rehabilitation for Gaza/Lebanon without serious supervision of how the funds are used (and diverted for military rearming).

d. Condemn Hamas and Hezbollah for firing indiscriminately at Israeli civilian centers and for partnering with Iran in the long campaign to weaken and destroy Israel, while pouring international aid into the rebuilding of the devastated northern and southern parts of Israel and seeking increased partnerships with the Israeli tech and military tech sectors to strengthen Israel and reinforce the Western alliance against Islamist tyranny.

12. The most important prayer that Israelis can offer over this Succot and Shemini Atzeret/Simchat Torah holidays is:

a. A prayer for enhanced Zionist spirit and backbone, including renewed commitment to national service and winning against Israel’s enemies.

b. A prayer for the hostages, wounded soldiers, and war widows/orphans.

c. “May it be your will, O Lord, that there be great affection and peace among all your people of Israel; that we should all be guided by brotherly love and compassion; that we should accept one another and learn from one another; that we should appreciate all your living beings; and that the misfortune of one person should touch the hearts of all.” (Attributed to Rabbi Nachman of Breslov.)

d. “For the Leader, a Psalm of David, a Song. Let God arise, let His enemies be scattered; and let them that hate Him flee before Him. As smoke is driven away, so drive them away. As wax melts before the fire, so let the wicked perish at the presence of God. But let the righteous be glad, let them exult before God. Let them rejoice with gladness. (Psalm 68)

e. “Oh Lord God, to whom vengeance belongs: Oh God to whom vengeance belongs, shine forth! Lift up yourself, you judge of the earth. Render to the proud their recompense. Lord, how long shall the wicked, how long shall the wicked triumph?… The Lord is my defense, and my God the rock of my refuge. He brings (upon the enemy) their own iniquity, and He cuts them off in their own wickedness…” (Psalm 94)

f. All the above.

MY ANSWERS: 1f. 2e. 3d. 4f. 5d. 6d I hope. 7c I am afraid. 8b. 9d. 10c. 11 Alas not d. 12f.

Published in  Israel Hayom, October 27, 2024.