Tehran’s cautious response: an analysis on Iran’s strategy amid rising tensions with Israel.
Expert on Iran and Shiite political Islam. PhD on pro-Iranian transnational networks in the Persian Gulf.
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The Iranian regime appears to be blocking initiatives to send forces to Lebanon, likely because it recognizes that the damage from such a move would outweigh the potential benefits.
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Once the full extent of the damage suffered by Hezbollah becomes clear in the near future, the group’s leadership will need to recalculate its approach to the war. The primary factor influencing the organization’s conduct will likely be the number of casualties, both among Hezbollah operatives and civilians.
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While Israel’s strike on Hodeidah briefly restored deterrence, recent Houthi missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea reveal the threat is far from over.
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Tehran has smuggled into Gaza a significant arsenal of UAVs, missiles, rockets, weapons, and more. It also has provided Hamas and PIJ terrorists with terrorist training in Iranian-based camps.
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The recent elimination in Beirut marks a new phase in the conflict between Israel and the terrorist organization. Israel must fully utilize its intelligence tools to anticipate future responses. If an all-out war breaks out, Israel would be better off initiating a preemptive strike.