Meir Ben Shabbat: Currently in Hamas, they are very interested in moving to Stage B and are acting to convince the mediating countries and through them, the United States, to pressure Israel to do this.

This is the stage that is supposed to provide them with one of the most important achievements from their perspective, after the war: A significant Israeli withdrawal from Gaza territories, including the southern, northern, and eastern areas under current IDF control,  except for a narrow security strip [the security perimeter]. This stage is supposed to pave the path to a full withdrawal in stage C.

For Israel, the primary goal remains disarmament of Hamas and demilitarization of Gaza, not a ceasefire. The transition to the second stage, without a practical plan for demilitarization, is not an Israeli interest. The opposite is true!. IDF control in the areas from which it is supposed to evacuate not only improves security preparedness for multiple scenarios, it also leaves in Israel’s hands a significant pressure lever on Hamas and on the mediating countries.

Published in JNS, December 24, 2025.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof: They are preparing the last war. They are disappointed with the extent of promised Chinese and Russian help. Israel-surrounding proxies were weakened significantly. The only thing Iranians have left is the missile project, which can’t paralyze Israel.

Published in The New York Sun, December 23, 2025.

Prof. Kobi Michael: The ISF will not fight Hamas. The only entity on the entire globe that is willing and able to do that is the IDF. But I think President Trump is looking toward the Nobel Peace Prize of 2026, and mainly he wants to realize the economic and business potential here in the Middle East. I think he will do his utmost to ensure that nothing will interfere.

In the end, there will be no disarmament of Hamas. Hamas will strengthen itself, and at some point we will reach another clash. This will be a very difficult multi-front challenge for Israel, and this will be a disaster for the free world, because it will embolden the radicals among the Arabs and the Muslims here in the region and beyond.

We are talking about opening the path to a new regional architecture. The Arab regimes that until today scapegoated Israel and exploited the Palestinian issue for domestic political purposes will have to take responsibility for the problem they created. This will lead to many new opportunities, opportunities that do not exist today.

Published in Eurasia, December 17, 2025.

Prof. Kobi Michael: I think the very fact that such a plan was introduced indicates a huge gap in the American understanding of Palestinian society.

The proposal is explicitly contingent on Hamas fully disarming and dismantling its tunnel network — a prerequisite that many analysts say would be difficult to achieve and sustain. Even if security conditions improve, skeptics question whether investors would risk billions of dollars in a region vulnerable to renewed conflict.

Winning Palestinian support may prove equally challenging. The idea that it will be done by foreigners is not accepted by the Palestinians themselves, calling it a new version of colonialism or imperialism.

Published in Fox News & 12News, December 23, 2025.

Prof. Kobi Michael: Trump appeared intent on maintaining the perception of progress toward peace in Gaza by restraining Israel and making concessions to Hamas and its allies, such as Qatar and Turkey.

The ISF will not fight Hamas. The only entity on the entire globe that is willing and able to do that is the IDF. But I think President Trump is looking toward the Nobel Peace Prize of 2026, and mainly he wants to realize the economic and business potential here in the Middle East. I think he will do his utmost to ensure that nothing will interfere.

In the end, there will be no disarmament of Hamas. Hamas will strengthen itself, and at some point we will reach another clash. This will be a very difficult multi-front challenge for Israel, and this will be a disaster for the free world, because it will embolden the radicals among the Arabs and the Muslims here in the region and beyond.

Published in The Washington Free Beacon, December 20, 2025.

Prof. Kobi Michael discusses the strong coordination between the US and Israel, stressing they remain “on the same page” in their determination to thwart Iran’s efforts to reconstitute its military nuclear capabilities. He argues that Israel is prepared for decisive action, potentially a “second strike,” and that maintaining the crucial diplomatic support of the United States is key to addressing the persistent Iranian threat.

The full interview took place on ILTV on December 18, 2025.

Prof. Kobi Michael discusses the serious concern that Israel is potentially on the path toward losing its Qualitative Military Edge in the region due to the American strategy, which considers Qatar and Turkey as crucial and influential players required for reshaping the Middle East. He suggests that President Trump’s approach is a pure business and economic strategy aimed at strengthening the American economy and increasing dependencies on the US by selling military hardware, and proposes that Israel should change the nature of US military aid from direct assistance to technological and scientific cooperation and development that will benefit both countries.

The full interview took place on Channel I24, on December 16, 2025.

Prof. Kobi Michael: If Hamas isn’t disarmed and the Gaza Strip isn’t demilitarized, Israel will have finished the war without achieving its goals. Israel will have trouble coming to terms with that.

In Lebanon, we see the highest chances for a resumption of the war. The Americans have lost their patience, and Israel has a green light to operate.

If Israel will reach an understanding with the Americans through dialogue with the Syrians that all of the territory south of Damascus will remain demilitarized and under a strict enforcement regime, Israel will be willing to reposition itself. But that won’t happen so fast.

Published in The Media Line, December 14, 2025.

Prof. Kobi Michael: The main problem, which actually overlaps all the dimensions – political, security – is the idea that Hamas must be disarmed, dismantled and the Gaza Strip must be demilitarized. If these things will not happen, then nothing will happen.

This is something that works just, against the interest of Israel, because Turkey and Qatar are the biggest providers and supporters of Hamas. They do not intend to enable the disarmament of Hamas. On the contrary, they want Hamas to remain as a relative and influential player in the Gaza Strip and beyond.

A preferred scenario for Israel, is for the area Israel controls to be a testing ground for Trump’s phase two. In this area, Israel would maintain overriding security control as a technocratic Palestinian administration is set up, overseen by the Board of Peace with security carried out by an International Stabilization Force alongside newly trained Palestinian police.

Published in The Hill, December 13, 2025.

Yossi Amrusi: While the appointment of an external candidate is controversial given the Mossad’s recent successes, Gofman possesses the core character trait required for the job.

In the last war, Mossad worked in a phenomenal form. Its achievements in Lebanon with the operation of the beepers and the achievements in Tehran and in Iran in general with the intimate intelligence that it succeeded [in delivering] on the most senior officials in the Revolutionary Guards, the Iranian scientists, this is phenomenal work that will be taught in schools for espionage and intelligence for tens of years more.

Published in JNS, December 11, 2025.