Asher Fredman discusses the state of the Abraham Accords and the interests that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have in Gaza. He also talks about the considerations when negotiating a deal with Hamas.
July 16, 2024.
Prof. Kobi Michael: It is an event with significant cognitive impact, which definitely affects Hamas members wherever they are, but Hamas is more than the sum of its parts. Hamas is a well-established, organized and determined jihadist entity that has previously endured severe losses among its key leaders and knowledge hubs.
Published in JNS, July 16, 2024.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser: The report leaves many questions unanswered, a comprehensive understanding requires looking at the entire military operation in and outside Kibbutz Be’eri — before, during, and after the October 7 attack.
Col. (res.) Dr. Hanan Shai: The investigation is no more than a technical investigation. It is a crystal clear and bleak picture of what happened there. But from the report, you cannot understand how it happened, what mistakes were made—nothing on the strategic level.
Published in The Media Line, July 15, 2024.
Prof. Kobi Michael: Unfortunately, this is the very troubling situation that any place we are leaving, after occupying and clearing it, Hamas goes back.
While it was unlikely the Israeli military would be able to entirely eliminate Hamas’ presence in the enclave, it was possible to end the militant group’s control over Gaza.
Israel’s intensified operations in Gaza are likely to be at least in part driven by a bid to put pressure on Hamas amid negotiations for a cease-fire deal.
The interview took place on NBC NEWS on July 11, 2024.
Asher Fredman: It would be better for Israel, and for the US, to wait to advance a normalization agreement until after the US elections, whatever the outcome.
Ruth Wasserman Lande: The Saudis need to see a strong and stable Israel, one that has the upper hand with the Palestinians. And they are waiting to see who will hold the reins in the US after the elections.
The interview took place on the I24 channel on July 11, 2024.
Prof. Kobi Michael: Even if we reach an agreement with Hamas and get the hostages, there is a very high probability that this agreement will be breached in the second phase, maybe even in the first phase, and then we will find ourselves in another collision.
Published in The MediaLine, and in The Jerusalem Post, July 5, 2024.
Moshe Fuzaylov: There is no such thing as the day after. This is not some reality show with an instant star that is born. The day after is a process that will last for many years. Despite the darkness and the tragedy, a thriving area could be born.
The operation was not conducted in a way that showed decisiveness. The use of raids as a means does not fit the goal. When fighting a guerilla organization, if one does not control the territory, the guerilla fighters come back. Gaza should have been completely conquered from the beginning and controlled by Israel, … including being responsible for the civilian population.
Published in MediaLine, June 30, 2024.
Asher Fredman: it doesn’t appear the Biden administration is going to hold back munitions that Israel needs. I think Israel is not particularly counting on the U.S. to help beyond that.
While President Biden’s performance at the debate may not directly impact Israel’s short-term calculations with regards to Hezbollah, it may well encourage Iran to use the next half year to advance its nuclear weapons program. In such a case, Israel will be forced to decide whether it is prepared to act militarily against Iran’s nuclear program, which would likely lead to a high-intensity war with Hezbollah as well.
Published in JewishInsider, July 1, 2024.
Prof. Kobi Michael: I think that those who are very frustrated [From the release of the hospital’s director] are very right. It was a mistake, first of all because Shifa hospital became to be a symbol, and it was introduced as the ultimate symbol, or if you want the ultimate manifestation of the brutal use of Hamas of civilian facilities, mainly hospitals. We sieged the hospitals in the first phase of the war [for] several days, and in the second phase three weeks, and in the third phase we entered and surprised Hamas there in the compound. Everybody understands that the main principal [director] of this hospital was fully aware to the idea that Hamas compound was built just beneath the hospital.
The interview took place on the ILTV channel on July 1, 2024.
Asher Fredman: The Middle East is safer and peace is more likely when the US is seen as strong on the world stage. Even before the debate, the US did not appear to be strong on the world stage. Because of Biden’s lackluster performance, it’s unlikely that China, Iran or Russia will feel that the US has the resolve to counter their designs in the Middle East.
Published in TPS, June 28, 2024.
