‘Trump Has Ability to Twist Arms’

Asher Fredman: Gazans won’t be able to leave in large numbers if Hamas gunmen are stopping people from leaving. A military campaign would first have to weaken Hamas enough to keep it from barring Palestinians from emigrating.

But there won’t be military operations against Hamas while [ceasefire] negotiations are ongoing during the second or third stage of the hostage deal. I don’t see Hamas releasing all of the living hostages in any scenario because they know that Israel would strike the next day once all the hostages are out. Tragically, they’re going to keep a few of the hostages as insurance.

Published in TPS, February 05, 2025.