As Iran’s proxy strategy weakens, focus shifts to nuclear program

Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser: Hezbollah has been significantly weakened and this undermines Iran’s deterrence and could prompt the regime to explore the nuclear option as a form of ultimate deterrence.

In light of Israeli successes, and in light of the fact that Trump could win the U.S. elections [scheduled for less than a month from now], this could strengthen those [in Iran] who support a breakout now. At the same time, they also have considerations that pull them in the opposite direction. Even if they discussed this, there is no expression that, at this time, they took a certain decision to move forward.

It’s a very high risk, especially in the current environment.

Published in JNS, October 16, 2024.